5th May, 2020. The last of snow has begun to melt in the Himalayan desert. The biting cold too has begun to subside. The high-altitude lakes of Ladakh, have finally permitted the Indian patrolling party to take strolls, and ascertain the off-late border situations. But just as the foot-soldiers march forward, they get caught up in a big surprise. Few troops from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), have set up their bases around and beyond their usual line of presence. This assertion soon turns into a request, an argument, the banners go up, the officers pitch in, a stand-off begins, and a minor reaction from either side swiftly turns into a violent skirmish injuring a few soldiers and boil up the tensions further. Both troops set up trenches, and thus begins, another long-haul between the two neighbouring civilisations.

Despite a cautious stance of censorship imposed from both the sides, a few details get leaked away, which get picked up by the curious social-media and the mainstreams too, shortly after. Two nuclear armed canoes eye-to-eye? It surely takes the world by storm. Right in the middle of a global pandemic, a struggling economy, the emotions brew up, mixed with fear. So is the feeling of Nationalism. Media has taken up the baton of raising the question - ‘What does the Chinese really want?’ And a month later? nobody has come forward to discuss, disclose or decode this behaviour. The Chinese intention, or the seriousness of the situation, it’s all a wait and watch for most. The stakes are too high, and nobody wants their head under the blade of blames (if something does go wrong). The government too is silent. Despite the regular back-channel flow of information leaking into the media, the questions remain, is India going for a war? Is India already in an undeclared war? Nobody knows.

India and China have always had a bitter-sweet relationship, with centuries of documented co-existence. Apart from our internal instabilities between the many kingdoms which coincided here, India historically has also been at a constant juggle with the world. Having to fight, resist, and surrender to countless foreign invaders. The French, Greek, Portuguese, Mughals and even the Britishers found a way to coin in, conquer and rule over India from time to time. Such invasions were of course destrressing to then living population, but these even brought an access to the world for India. It brought techniques, food-choices, machines, medicines, festivals, cultures, weapons and ideas into the country, which made India quite well-aligned to have trade relationships with the world, and particularly to the west. With trade comes the movement of people, and exchange of understanding for each other’s civilisations. You’d find countless books, articles, depictions and thoughts authored by prominent non-Indian nationals, perfectly describing and documenting India, its culture, its people through their experiences. This understanding helped these entities govern India effectively. They could understand and predict the need and nature of the Indian people, and sometimes manipulated it to their advantage. For example, the Mughals figured the importance and non-compromisable feelings of an Indian Hindu to visit their religious pilgrimages and used this behaviour-turned-existential ‘cultural need’ to make revenues by imposing taxes for such travels. Ever wondered why the British introduced the concept of Civil Services in India? Don’t have many hopes from me on this, this one is your homework for the night.

Through the British rule, India got an access to the west. Railways, architecture, composition of our military structure, the entire constitution and even the concept of democracy was handed over to us later. With these momentum of synchronisation, the world began to understand and predict India better, and so did we vice-versa. But meanwhile, China kept their walls up, and were mostly engaged with their own internal crisis. Civil wars, division of borders, enmity between ruling nobles, and revolutions. Such instabilities cut-off China from rest of the world for a very long time. The then Sea Power British, did make an attempt to establish trade relationships with them so as to gain an access to the tea, demand for which were high as gold in their own lands. But this trade, didn’t end up well, with the Opium war setting in, the hostile takeover of Hong Kong, unfriendly trade treaties that the Chinese king was made to sign, came a trust deficit that lasted for centuries. The relations turned sour and with such sequence of events, China opted for further self-isolation. This brews well in our own understanding of China today, or the Chinese way of assessing and responding to situations.

Whatever happens in the world today, which has a Chinese stakeholder-ship, the basic approach to deal with such situation is always ‘Trial and Error’, until something is observed to be working. But until that is found, the only thing the countries and their people are left with, is pure confusion, and in some cases, fear. Will the Chinese declare a war? Will the Chinese take over our land? Will the Chinese in-debt our people? Will the Chinese make colonies out of their allies? Nobody has a sure-shot answer, but a best guess. And definitely not the common people like you and me. So, when you read the news about India being engaged in a serious stand-off with China, people ought to become anxious. Unlike our other hard-bound enemy Pakistan, the Chinese response, ambition, objective and intentions are too hard to predict. We know that Pakistan wants Kashmir, or why does it want Kashmir, and we can easily analyse its response and aggression in the same context. But can we surely say why does China want Ladakh? Or does it even actually want Ladakh? Why right now? Why at all? If you go around asking such questions to common people in India, the comparative understanding is somewhat relatable to a ‘Land grabbing enemy’. But here is when I urge you to ask a question. “Is it really so?” Or is there something more to it?

What’s up with China?

All Civilisations have a unique characteristic. They learn their way of response through their own past. India being under a constant reign of external invasions, the people and the governments have always been insecure about resolving, fighting or guarding for our borders and mitigate any probabilities of disintegration through internal people-backed revolutions. The concept of partition has left a scar on us for sure, and it surely reflects in our ways of dealing with other countries. You’d always find India opting for a rather protectorate kind of trade policies/approach, barring and banning foreign entities and even migrants into India. And just like this, the Chinese too have learned their way and responses framed through the timeline of their past. From never trusting the west, to being extremely restrictive of allowing a foreign entity to ‘connect’ China to the world. They’ve banned Google, and Facebook, but they want Huawei to win 5G licenses in the US and the EU.

Their government policy is about making their people and businesses richer, in return of asking them to compromise on their personal and collective freedoms. But this isn’t coming out of an ambitious Chinese leadership, but rather lessons from their past, that made them understood a world which purely runs on and adheres to the power of bullet and wallet. And they’re hard committed to expand on both of them. Whatever be the cost. Even if the lives of 3-4 generations of Chinese people have to be compromised for that. And this approach of responding to the world, makes other countries ascertain their behaviour as weird or borderline unacceptable.

So how does any nation respond to a Chinese aggression? When we do not understand what the Chinese want, when they want it, and how do they plan on achieving their objective? We too respond with the same ‘trial and error’ way, without actually thinking if it’ll work. ‘Ban Chinese Products’. This comes from a thought that losing some money and trade rattles China. But is that even a case? Was it so, it wouldn’t be lending so recklessly to countries who cannot even pay back that money. What benefit does China seek by investing in Bhutan or Nepal? Or even assisting North Korea? But the majority of people do not even read the facts here. And this isn’t the fault of our education system or inaccessibility of correct information, but instead it is what the government really wants. Having a population that doesn’t take an effort to dig out some truth becomes a great political tool as and when required. It helps the government ready a country’s response to sudden contingencies. It fades out questions and criticism.

The first thing that any government or a country requires to fight and win a war, isn’t money, technology, or weaponry, it is the approval of its people. Without the public support, any battle fought is as good as being lost. Public support is an extreme must. In 1980’s US had to pull out of Vietnam war because at home, it had lost the support of its people. They were no longer in a view to keep sending more soldiers, paying taxes, and keep sacrificing their country’s or own personal growth for the sake of fighting that war. Decades later, the exact same thing repeated when the US decided to pull out of Afghanistan, signing a ‘Peace’ treaty with those, whom they once called, declared and identified as ‘Terrorists’. The US gained nothing out of that war. No trade deals, no resources, and almost went back to the pre-war status quo. Had the American public foreseen that this battle will kill countless, with no victory at the end, US could have never gone for that war in the first place. The public perception needs to be consistent with what the government needs it to be for their own strategic or political objectives.

The same is with India. If our public gets to know the cost of a war with China, and the exact calculation of how much damage will ‘banning Chinese goods’ really reflect in China’s trade books, we too may not be so willing or sentimental about it. There might be no reason to be nationalistic about fighting a war or running such campaigns, instead settling of border disputes through some means will be the preferred ask from our governments.

So what is it, that you should know?

India is a small country. Not by land or population, but by demand, by consumption, by savings, by expenditure. Just having a ‘Potential’ to become a Superpower does not really count. Every expertise needs to be certified. When you approach a company for a job, you got to present your qualifications. Same is when you go to a bank to ask for a loan. You got to present the papers that certifies your credit worthiness, or skills to run a business well and pay back on time. Mere words and promises aren’t enough and do not hold any water. Despite having 130 Crore people (1/7th of the world’s population), India’s share of Chinese export is just 3% at the best. 97% of whatever China manufactures and exports every year, is consumed by other countries, with far less population. Thus having or not having India in their trade books, does not really matter to them. It can easily ignore India’s ‘Ban China’ campaigns, and fill that gap by exporting to newer markets, elsewhere in the world. And because of this small size, China too has no urgency to resolve anything with India. It can happily extend the border disputes for another century. It knows that the Indian market has a potential, but till date, it has not materialised. And going by the current turmoils in the country today, the future doesn’t seem as revolutionary either. What if tomorrow, Kazakistan asserts for a border dispute with India, and their people run a ‘Ban Indian Goods’ campaign? Will India even pay a heed? Knowing that they account for hardly 0.3% of our export books? Think about it.

India is dependent on China. Indian people have a very small capacity to invest and spend money. The per capita income in India is about $1700 a year, which is about the price of an iPhone and an Airpod. Because of such a poor state, India need goods in mass quantities but in extremely limited budgets. When our government wants to equip students with laptops, it needs millions of units, in maybe just 6 months of time, but at a price each Indian student can afford. At present, only China has such an infrastructure, where the large banks can shell out huge loans to entrepreneurs, who can set up a million square meter factory in a month’s time, hire tens of thousands of skilled engineers, accountants, designers and professionals, complete the order and ship it in 6 months at a price that a poor Indian can afford. You’d keep hearing notions as to how cheap quality the Chinese products are, but it isn’t entirely true. China, like all countries, manufactures goods for various price ranges. You can get a $100 phone or a $1600 iPhone. It all depends on your budget and ability to afford. When was the last time you actually complained about the quality of the $1600 iPhone? This is how they conquered the world demand.

Can India not manufacture these products at home? We can. All the technology, processes, information are available today to do so, but scaling up to that many quantities, in short time and reasonable price is nearly impossible for India. Hence, importing these products from abroad helps us grow quickly and affordably. No wonder, we’re all able to buy smartphones, lay down million mile fibre optic cable imported from China, have a 4G connection, and get to connect to the world. For all 130 Crores of us. Without the Chinese capacities, these things will not be possible in 2020, maybe not even by 2050. Time is extremely precious today. And Globalisation helps India to afford and use the latest inventions of modern technologies at the right time. And how has it benefitted us, is spectacular. We could arrange computers for our billion population, connect them to the internet, teach them coding, and we could manage to build up a best in class IT industry in no time and take it to the world. Had we not been importing computers from China, computers would have been such a rare sight in Indian homes! And to become a software engineer, rather a sweet dream.

We are absolutely free to give up this privilege anytime by not importing from China. But this would mean making our population buy substandard goods for higher the cost, lesser the value, and well, most of our population will not be able to buy that product only because our factories will not be able to produce that many units for everyone who wants it. We’d lose decades of growth and deprive our population of goods and services which can make their lives better, easier and affordable. All in the name of nationalism? But even if we do this, China still has no incentive to stop displaying aggression at our borders. It’ll continue to ramp up its military might against India in any case, and then, our struggling population and starving government will be even weaker to afford a war. Do you want this by banning China?

China sees no incentive in sorting out its disputes in India. Even if it fixes its relations with India, there’s not much for China to gain in the short and medium term. But on the other hand, China has a lot of incentive in creating and continuing its disputes with India. For every time it shows an aggression, it gets to send a message to the world, that it is the Big Boy in the area, and it is whom all the countries should talk to and negotiate peace with instead of India, who is by far, limited in reality, no matter the talk of potential. This is what is changing Nepal’s approach towards India. It sees no incentive to side with India except having cultural similarities. China wants a conflict, and it would never avoid it at the cost of losing just 3% of its trade relationship with India. For China, this scheme of aggression is a way of extorting benefits. Such aggression will keep India out from the Chinese ambition of capturing as much unchallenged influence as it aims to.

And the Chinese are extremely good with concepts of war and strategies. They play well with deception and have mastered the art of delivering a message, without actually narrating it in words. And there are a lot of stories around it which can help you understand the Chinese way of doing things. And I’ll give you some interesting ones.When the late PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee had made a trip to China, to meet their supreme leaders in the name of peace talks and bettering relations, the Chinese conducted an unannounced nuclear test. It was all to deliver a very focused message to the Indian counterpart and display a sense of power to gain an upper hand in negotiations. In 1965 when India was in war with Pakistan, out of nowhere, the Chinese accused India to ‘Return their 800 Sheep and 69 stolen Yaks’. Such stances are laughable, but this was a pure message delivery to India, that the Chinese are to intervene in the war, should we trouble their allies (Pakistan).

Then, there was the Dokalam stand-off. This time, the message was for India’s neighbours to stop siding with India, because there’s no incentive in doing that, while there’s a lot in talking and negotiating with China who’s the richest and most powerful country in the region. Even now, while a long stand-off is going on in Ladakh, the eastern border seems like a ever-happy place. It is weird silent in Arunanchal and Sikkim which China has always been asserting as their territory. By showing aggression in Ladakh, they’re just delivering a message to India, it does make us anxious, but they’ve kept the Eastern border on hold for later, just in case we fail to get their message correctly. China is currently under a stress due to Coronavirus Pandemic, the economy, and its relation with the other countries particularly the USA. And China definitely expects India to aim higher and surround them. It wants to keep India ‘neutral’ and even wants to bring up some nationalism for the Chinese population, so as to settle their frustration. The Chinese know very well, that India is desperate for peace with China, and that showing such an aggression would make India run to their tables for negotiations. This will open up bigger doors for behind the scene negotiations as well.

The Chinese don’t believe in ‘Saying it’, they believe in sending a ‘Silent’ message through a particular way of action-backed response. Unlike India, the Chinese army is a political arm. The Indian army belongs to the state, the land, and the people of India. Their oath and commitment is towards their state and the people. Comparatively, the Chinese army (PLA) belongs to the political party of China - The Chinese People’s Party. Their oath and commitment is to serve and protect the interest of the party instead of the state or the people. Both armies are ideologically different. The PLA is quite political in its operations. The Indian army, is rather a core armed force.In either case, a war happens or not, the Chinese are here, to deliver a message to the Indian government (and not particularly to the Indian people). They know who holds the power to negotiate (give China what they want).

The question remains,has our leadership decoded the latest message? And if we have, are we delivering the right response? The thing that China fears is India’s resolve to fight back. To deliver counter-aggression. They know that this response can make them look weak. The best thing to do right now is stand aggressively. Bullet for bullet, eye for eye, message for message. When and if China figures, that there’s nothing to gain from this, and we aren’t to budge, they’ll back off themselves. And to not let anything slip away from our wallets when it gets over, will be our final tactical victory. Until, it happens again, because the Chinese are hard negotiators. And it’ll continue to remain and haunt us, until we learn and be, the same.

12th May, 2020. 8:00 PM

The Prime Minister, of the world's second most populous country goes live on all major news TV channels, addressing his citizens. People have been eagerly waiting to hear him as well. His popularity and approval ratings have been hitting through the roof lately, fading away the failures of his government for backtracking on the infamous NRC and CAA. As always, nobody knows what the announcements will be. Just as a plot-twist of a major blockbuster ending. A new task? A stricter lockdown? An out of the box idea? Nobody knows. But everyone is relived by his decisiveness for taking quick and early measures for fighting a global pandemic. It saved lives for sure. But it wasn't at no cost.

But as his speech progresses, people figure out that it isn't much about the pandemic or ways to fight it off. But instead, is all about a new, and major financial package. "INR 20L Crores" says the PM. It instantly becomes a headline, raising eyebrows. Is India finally catching up to act like a real world power by spending a massive 10% of its GDP? Or is it just trying to punch above its belt? People question. No details are offered and is left to the Finance Minister to reveal in the next 5 days. A gift box for now, wrapped in the colourful ribbons of 'Self-Reliance'. An 'Atmanirbhar' Bharat.

While every other country is taking an initiative to ease out the damages done by their respective lockdowns, India is attempting to go Big-Bang on long term initiatives. The pandemic, the suffering, the migrant labourer crisis, everything is almost sidelined, if not forgotten. The 20L Crs. package talks about digitising India, with a new one-nation-one-ration-card, or allowing access to private firms for renting out the assets of ISRO. While people struggle to find two meals a day, sleeping under the open skies, walking miles without transportation, with infants and elderlies, all due to hopelessness and humiliation, the government is almost offering another mid-year union budgetary speech. All about allocating funds to newer schemes, and nothing about taking the needy home.

All of this, might come out as seriously insensitive, disrespectful, and even as a trigger point for some anger. But a lot is happening behind the scenes, which is compelling the government to respond to this crisis in a very unexpected and unique way. The structure of this world is now shifting. In terms of preferences, politics, policies and practices. This pandemic has left a lot of things exposed. On one side it has exposed the unreliability of the global supply chain master - China. For how it tried to cover up and brush up the information in the early days of an outbreak. While it did ban the inter-China movement of people, it negligently let the Wuhan international airport operational, letting the virus go global. Reports even suggest that China tried to pressurise the WHO. The data on the total number of casualties, or the infected are still largely untrustworthy, all thanks to the Chinese way of censorship. This has spooked a lot of people, governments, investors and institutions. But at this moment, they find themselves in the pool of helplessness. For right now, nothing can match or replace the Chinese effectiveness and efficiency of doing things and tackling tough situations. While the entire world is struggling to find ways to exit their lockdowns, China on the other hand has opened up its Disneyland allowing tourists to travel and celebrate.

China, is trying to put up a picture of its governance model. Assuring the world, that it is effective to deal with anything, and recover faster than anybody else. But this move is also a sign of nervousness. It knows that the companies operating and manufacturing in China, do not trust it anymore. They want to move out, fast, and diversify, so as to ensure their up-time, just in case a similar event happens again. Because it will happen again. And China isn't the only country to have dealt with the Pandemic well. In fact, South Korea, Germany, and even Vietnam seem like a safe switch option.

But this nervousness in companies, isn't a good news for India. And the Indian government has figured this out early. In this new, post-Corona world, nobody wants to have a single point of dependency. Everyone wants to diversify. Instead of having one mega factory in China and producing everything there, the companies are now looking forward to have 10 different factories, in 10 different countries, so even if 2 or 3 happen to get shut down due to circumstances, the production can still keep going. So for every pie that moves out from the China's refrigerator, India only gets a single slice. For decades, India has aspired to be the 'Next China', but maybe, from this date onwards, there will be no 'Next China'. And this is a buzzing alarm for all of the 1.32 billion people in India, aspiring and dreaming to earn more, grow further and attain parity in contrast to the western world's income and spending levels. The horrors are now unfolding. And being stuck in a recessionary middle income trap, is the last thing that India and its citizens want to be in.

But even in good times, investors had largely kept themselves away from entering the Indian borders. Reasons are quite apparent to everyone. From uneven infrastructure, to lack of ports, lack of highly trained and skilled labourers, tough labour laws, corruption, political instability, and lack of government support in clearing up the land, approving projects, or even timely resolving disputes in courts. And sadly, the Indian invitation to them today, still doesn't play on resolving these issues, but offering the same age old 'Democracy, Demographics and Demand' gift package, that honestly, nobody cares about. They wouldn't have been in China in the first place, had they cared about being in a democratically governed country.

What China offers its investors is largely unparalleled today. Even big powers like the United States isn't able to match up to what the Chinese are offering. From connectivity through the Bullet trains, to lanes of express ways, connectivity to ports, 5G networks, a population which earns and spends a lot (demand), highly skilled labour force, less media or legal troubles, top notch security, a stable currency, access to resources like water, big banks, large credit facilities, and cheap import of other non available resources from abroad, sometimes, even without taxes. China is building infrastructure at a record pace. Bridges, tunnels, dams, real estate, universities, and even shelling out loans to red-lined countries in exchange of votes in the United Nations. It is not only getting difficult to catch up with such a country, it is getting near-impossible. And for investors to leave such a country and move to other less reliable ones, appear to be a far bigger risk. They're not only reluctant to coming to India, they're even reluctant to go back to their home country, the USA despite Trump pleading, or clamping down on them with back to back trade wars. To leave China means, to leave low costs, a large market, and a higher profit margin.

All of this is sure to bring a lot of tough times for India. And to ease it out, the government has suddenly turned inwards, from trying to go Make in India (And export) to being an 'Atmanirbhar' Bharat (Consume). And in your own lifetime, you are sure to see a very different India, than what you always read, thought or heard about. Pandemics surely change the world. And it surely will change India.

To make it interesting, I'll be listing down a few changes that you'll definitely see in your own lifetime. So here are 10 predictions to what you may see change drastically in near and medium terms, and what India changing its strategy to go 'Atmanirbhar' with this era of a global pandemic would bring to you.

1) First up, your incomes. Incomes in India will begin to rise. As the pandemic sweeps across the country, creating a labour crisis, the government will slash the interest rates. Keeping your money idle in a bank will seem less profitable or benefitting. People will want to spend, or lend it away for much better interest rates, which will increase liquidity in the market. More the money in market, more will the people want to spend to buy something or lend it out. Result? Rising prices of goods and services. And rising income levels too. It'll bring about another interesting phenomenon. Currently in India, people earn and multiply their money mostly through savings/investments in immovable assets. For people who are in the middle age groups and are able to earn and save enough, earning an interest on saved money (like FD) outruns their yearly incomes (like salaries). The tables but, are about to turn. This will make an early retirement a big no-no, while being a working professional a much sought after lifestyle. If you wish to keep earning, you'd have to keep working. Selling a house to buy a new one will not fetch you much. To keep upgrading, you'd have to stay put, and grow at work.

2) But nothing is all good news, with a shift towards earning, job markets too will become very competitive. You'd need more skills, more limelight to get a job, or to even make a switch. Remote working will be the 'new cool', and you'd have to up your online presence so as to make the recruiters come to you. Finding a job will become easier with time, but sustaining it, rather difficult. Contractual jobs will be more preferred by the employers. And you might get to have more than one job affiliations at the same time.

3) Sadly, because of this change, India will move away from being the back-end support for the world. In previous decades, global companies used to approach India to handle their back-end, support and operations (BPOs). While companies could sell a product at a higher price abroad, giving customer support locally there was way more expensive. But with remote work coming in, and adherence to social distancing, large offices will become a less preferable and productive spaces. Having to run with just 30% of the capacities, BPO units will find it hard to run effectively or offer such large scale services anymore. And given the evolving need for data protection, privacy, risk and fighting frauds, these jobs will not be migrating to work from home either. The BPO industry is sure to take a big hit.

4) The demand habits too will be changing. While the businesses will get back to work, social distancing and rules against crowding will make it unsustainable for businesses to run and exist in their original format. The impact will bring more preference towards home deliveries, more takeaways, or online shopping. The restaurants too will begin placing themselves near large public spaces like parks, where you can buy a meal, but enjoy it in solidarity, rightly distanced from other people, instead of sharing a table in cramped-up closed dining spaces. What we call a 'lockdown' today, will just become another 'rulebook' for accessing the same services in a different manner. Lockdowns will continue, as and where this behavioural change of social distancing isn't being followed. Until one day, lockdowns will no more be required to make you stand distantly. Something like airlines plying at only 30% capacity would no longer be called a 'Restriction/Lockdown', but instead, it'll begin to reflect as 'I travel for need only.'

5) Businesses like travel, hospitality and leisure are set to become more expensive. Flight travel, staying in a hotel, or watching a movie will cost you more as these businesses run on economies of scale and actually make money by drawing crowds. To fly an aircraft from Mumbai to Delhi, the costs are fixed. Salaries of the pilots, the crew, the maintenance, food, airport fee, taxes, fuel costs etc. They make it up by selling all the 150 seats to people and charging varied profit margins on each ticket depending on the demand, supply and the timing of booking (early bird, late commer). But now if these aircrafts have to fly at half their capacities, either the number of flights will have to get reduced or the people will have to be charged more. Same is with the movie theatres, malls, or hotels. It'll limit the people due to safety concerns but raise the costs.

6) Governments will soon move towards keeping the cities open 24/7. Not only for physical goods, but also for online services. It'll not only keep the footfalls staggered and limited at one given point in time, but also allow businesses to make up the lost cost by serving customers at all points in time. Work from home, education from home, uneven sleeping patterns are surely going to aid this culture even more. Slept all day, trip to a mall at midnight night? It won't be awkward anymore.

7) The governments will now be spending large amounts of money towards infrastructural development, especially in the 2nd and 3rd tier cities. Building roads, setting up electricity lines, giving out cheap lands to build factories, building water canals, and privatising a lot of government units. Cities are sure to see a skill and demand drain as people begin to lose the 'need' of being in a city, in unnecessarily bear high living costs and start heading back to their hometowns instead. Work from home, study from home, etc. will go with them as well to the 2nd and 3rd tier towns. Suddenly there'll be a spike in demand for everything in such towns, and both the government and companies will rush to fill them up. Governments too have to arrange for work opportunities for these migrating people. Labour laws are sure to get eased out. And some states have already done that.

8) Business and supply of goods will begin to localise. While we already see this with the perishable goods like milk. Delhi has a monopoly with Mother Dairy, while Mumbai gets more of Amul products. With more businesses beginning to capture the local supply lines due to the current breakdown of a nationalised supply chain, branding will go local as well. Every region will have a supply of products from a regional brand instead of businesses trying to run on a national scale. While big brands may be able to sustain a nation wide scale, many of their products will get replaced by other regional and local brands. This would mean, people in this country will begin to consume different products/services and won't be buying or accessing the same standardised offerings. Your favourite brand of glucose biscuit, may not be available at all for your friend living in a different city.

9) Decentralisation of power. State and local level governments will now get more power. They'll be empowered to offer licences, make rules or clamp down with stricter controls as they desire. Censorship too will vary from state to state. But so will, the trust of people. People will begin to look up to their state governments first for their problems, than questioning the central mothership beforehand. And businesses too, will begin to establish a closer relationship with the local governments than running purely on the influence of the national leadership.

10) Fall of the Real Estate. This decade will begin as a pink slip for the real estate market. With people getting restricted to travel, there'll be lesser need to buying homes and offices across the country for investment purposes. Would you invest in a property based in a different city, while you'll hardly get to travel there? With migration from cities, rental incomes too are sure to fall, labour and construction too prices will be going up. Governments meanwhile will ramp up with their free and subsidised housing schemes for the poor, reducing need for any more housing. Offices are migrating home, commercial real estate is already taking a toll. Banks too will become risk averse and defocus on giving out long term loans and focusing on the short term loans like credit cards instead. However, people will begin to make their existing homes better, more comfortable and luxurious. If you are planning to get that large LED TV with a recliner, now's the time. We might even resort to better family planning.

These will be few of the immediate changes, you might experience in your near mid term future. It'll surely affect your major life decisions. Wanting to study away from home? Buying a car? Invest into mutual funds? Order that pizza or cook it at home? A long term restriction, brings about a behavioural change in all of us. We're all moving to a different type of lifestyle. One which is built on personal choices than professional ones. This revolution about personal choices, will reflect in the much talked about 'Atmanirbhar' Bharat. Your choices, will be about your immediate loved ones. Towards things and opportunities available near you, around you, accessible to you. You yourself will be going local, living local, appreciating local. recommending local. And with you, India too will, be doing the same.

During the 90's, the pace of our technological breakthroughs was so high that it made us quite ambitious. Everybody was imagining a world with flying cars, cure to human ageing, robots replacing humans at work and what not. Some said it'll be 'in the next 20 years', some said 'in the next 30 years'. And then, here we are.

May the 4th, 2020.

It's been almost 6 months since Covid19 disease was first reported. And been more than a month since India took a hard call of entering into a nation-wide lockdown. 'Act Early' was the only mantra. Each day of delay in imposing this lockdown would have had a tremendous cost in terms of loss of human lives. Economy was put into a closet, and saving lives became the only priority. And a population of 1.3 billion too, calmly agreed to side aside their differences, both amongst each other and with the government, adhering to stay at home. Now, a month later, each day of extending the same lockdown is costing us all. Poor and the privileged alike. Lives are saved, but livelihoods are being killed. Thousands of educational institutes, businesses, factories are now shut. Millions of jobs are at stake. Pay cuts and deferment of increments have become a new normal. Nobody is complaining though. For everyone is hopeful and happy to be alive and healthy. Just as the modern day teenagers say it, 'This too shall pass', all of us are keeping our heads low, heels packed and ambitions set aside, continuing to brace.

But probably, now is the right time to look back, offer credits wherever due (Digital India), and also offer criticism wherever called for (Migrant crisis). And the most sought out question at this point of time is, have we really "Flattened the curve"? If yes, when are we bidding this lockdown a final happy goodbye, and jumping back to our previous normal lives? And if no, then is this the way we're to live going forward? Are we even prepared for this? And even if we are, are others prepared for us? Our schools? Hospitals, offices? Other countries? Perhaps, we're moving too fast, without stopping, thinking and realigning our perceptions. But we actually need to.

Let's be honest here, two months of impromptu ‘vacations' have made a lot of us happy. We got to take some time out, be with our pets, friends and families. Cooking delicacies, sketching, colouring, making Tik Tok videos, gaining tonnes of views, shares, likes and attaining satisfaction of drawing some social media popularity. We went through a reign of productivity competition, zoom calls, bragging about our quarantine modes or digging out some of our old ‘throwback’ pictures. But really, ask yourself. Till when will this continue? Till when, can this continue? Can life be paused forever? No exams, no colleges, no jobs, no travel, no ambitions as we continue to drain our savings and days? Can we keep playing 'Pass the brush' challenge while the poor struggle to pass a meal? or die? or let a seriously widespread anxiety take over this country's mental health? Are lives in this country really normal, or are we just deliberately trying so hard with our newly invented distractions, pretending everything is fairly okay, happy, healthy and well?

One and a half months since the lockdown began. Is the situation really getting better today? Or is it actually getting worse?

The total number of infected people went on from a few hundreds on March 24th, to 42,000 on May 4th, doubling every 12 days now. By May 17th, the infected count will be about 85,000, doubling maybe every 15 days then. And this explains something. A hard fact to sallow. That this disease, is unstoppable now. It'll not decline. It is to keep growing, doubling every 15 days and quadrupling every month. And if you actually think about it, heading out from your home was way safer on March 25th (first day of the lockdown) than on May 4th (40th day of the lockdown). And it'll keep getting more and more dangerous, as the time progresses. By the time it is June end, we might have about 2 Lac cases, scattered across the country. Amongst your neighbourhood, ready to clutch on to you through your own near and dear ones. Regions which are a Green Zone today, will be Red tomorrow, some Red will become Orange and life will become a continuous rollercoaster of going inside and outside of containment zones. If you think that you'll be asked to step out of your house only when "Everything is over" you're mistaken and delusional.

You're not been kept at home to be safe, but rather to safeguard our health infrastructure until a sufficient number of PPE kits/Ventillators/Testing Kits/Isolation beds are available. The government isn't saving you, they're saving themselves. From being overrun.

But all of our 'hopes' are riding on just one thing - developing a vaccine. But let's drill this down. We've known Coronaviruses for quite some time now. They give us a range of diseases with varied intensities. Some of them give us a common cold, some other versions of them give us SARS, or MERS. And now, we've encountered a new 2019 variety of this Coronavirus, which is giving people the Covid19 (now turned pandemic). But here's another fact. We have no working vaccine, for any of the Coronaviruses. Neither SARS, or MERS (which we had first encountered decades ago). Vaccines either were never developed for these diseases, as they were short lived, or they didn't work. And this is the thread we're hanging from today. We know very little about this new strain of Coronavirus.

We've known this new virus for a very little time (About 5 months). We don't even know its complete list of symptoms, or a proper death rate. We aren't sure if this is airborne, or can be airborne in which type of environment. We have no idea if it is affected by temperature or humidity variations, or can it be seasonal. If it can survive on different surfaces differently. Can it reinfect a recovered person, or if it has or can mutate into something deadlier than what we’ve already known. Why does it kill more males than females? Why does it not kill that many infants. Can a vaccine work on this virus? How long can it provide us the sought after immunity? Will we have to get ourselves vaccinated every month? Every year?

The questions are infinite. And the answers? We just don't know yet. It needs years of documenting a disease, with varied experiences, observations and a large dataset of infected people from different demographics, genes and geographies to come up with rather accurate, trustable and dependable information source for the disease. And we're far too new and unprepared for this virus anyway.

And hence, there's actually a probability, that our vaccines might never work against this virus. There's also a probability that it can reinfect people seasonally or in close proximity. Are we even prepared for these scenarios? Can you continue to stay at home? Or will the government give up and ask you to take a risk, and step out anyway? We're in the middle of this uncertainty. The lockdown is going to end anyway. Vaccine or no vaccine. Cure, or no cure. Contained or Uncontrolled. You will be asked to trust your healthcare system, download an app, buy an insurance policy, a mask, a hand sanitiser, remember a few protocols and just step out. The numbers will keep rising. The hospitals will keep isolating, curing and discharging new people daily. The deaths too, will keep mounting. But life cannot be stopped, locked down or be forgotten away.

And there's one more thing that I ought to point out here. Which is the lack of utilising our so-called premier institutions. In the last 3 decades, India built thousands of engineering, management, and healthcare institutions, which trained millions of students each year, making them create, design, research, write and publish uncountable numbers of papers and projects. And we offered them their degrees basis these, certifying the capability to contribute with their skillset. And here we are, two months into a lockdown, sitting at home, binge watching TV shows, with almost none of our institutes or degreed graduates coming forward, or having substantially contributed into a single scalable project which could help us, turn ourselves around, and counter this pandemic crisis effectively. We just get a few articles on our social media pages as to how 'An XXT student designed a low cost ventilator', but the fact is, all of those are a mild PR activity which helps students secure a degree, with some fame and the so called innovation, never scales up, mass produced, mass marketed, sold/donated/enhanced to save precious lives. We're still dependent on China and South Korea for the testing kits, even PPE kits for our doctors and health workers. Medicine, and Vaccines, you name it. We're waiting for a day, when a western nation successfully develops a vaccine, ends this crisis, and donates some to us as well. We've literally failed to utilise our own manpower resource. And sadly, both you and me are a part of this legacy.

But whatever it is, we’ll have to learn to live with this. We'll have to realign our lifestyles to it. Replan our ambitions, rework our skills, find new ways to get a job and earn money, and safeguard ourselves and our families. It is time, that we stop looking at the scoreboard on a daily basis. How many got infected, how many got cured, or died, because maybe, this will now be a continuous thing. You may give examples of a few modern countries. China, Vietnam or Japan which have been able to establish a complete control on the spread, but then again, we're not them, we can't be them. And we're not even sure if they too can sustain being in control for how long. They may lose tomorrow, a month layer, a year later. Every single chance of error, will definitely result into a new uncontrollable outbreak. And such chances of error are too damn high in our country. With people spitting on the roads, defying lockdowns, escaping containment zones, hiding travel history, mixing communalism, opting for social biocotts, lynchings, distrust for the government, population density, lack of hygiene etc. our chances of error are extremely high. Aprpox 1.32 billion (people) multiplied by a negligence factor of 10 (minimum) on a daily basis. Even touching our face after touching something that may be contaminated is a chance of an error if you think about it. No government can control that. Neither can any number of laws, fines, surveillance or punishments. It will spread. But should this stop us? Should it stop our offices, jobs, education, businesses? Should we continue to stay at home and deprive our vulnerable with opportunities to earn minimum two meals a day? All for the fear of making a mistake?

Probably it is time, that we work on the ‘post’ scenario than the ‘pre’ ones. Asking the government to prepare our hospitals to handle millions of cases, test millions of people, source ventilator to save serious cases from dying, secure millions of isolation facilities, have an effective and quickly deployable containment strategy and just open up the economy to save lives and livelihoods alike?

We will never be able to keep our airports shut forever. Airlines and railways grounded, interstate transportation restricted, eCommerce out of bounds in hope that our efforts will bring the cases to zero some day. Because that will never happen. In the near foreseeable future at least. Because this diseases exploits the human tendency to make errors. And you cannot fix that. Because to err, is just... human. But what we also have as humans, that this disease cannot exploit or win over, is the courage to step up, step out, step on and step over every perceivable situation. And perhaps, this is what, we’re to do from here. From now on, and ever..

In mid November 2019, the Chinese health officials encountered a weird new disease. A lot of people at the Wuhan city hospital were reporting cases of fever, chest pains, difficulty in breathing, and were subsequently turning Pneumonic. The doctors ran tests over tests to confirm the exact cause for this disease, but all were coming out as negative, forcing the doctors to use the only mechanism available to confirm the issue - running chest X-Ray scans. Nobody knew what was causing this disease, there were no test kits, and no information on how it was spreading. Cluelessness and fear was now invading their minds. Afterall how to even fight-off a disease without knowing its origin, the exact rate of spread, the methods to detect, contain or cure it?

It was only later in December, they could identify that a new Zoonotic pathogen causing this illness. And it wasn't the first time that they were tackling this type of outbreak involving a similar viral pathogen. It wasn't even the second time. In fact it was their third, in the last 2 decades alone. And two of them emerging in their own backyards.

A new strain of Coronavirus, was now spreading, rapidly and uncontrollably like wildfire, while the Chinese officials were caught clueless in the middle of an outbreak. The local government officials but knew, that this would bring a similar embarrassment to the country, as it did before, and will become the thorn on their ticket to securing a premier influential seat in Beijing. The fear of losing out a career was growing, resulting in a red-tape bureaucratic intervention - a long followed fashion of the Communist Party of China. The outbreak kept on dissolving into the Chinese population of Wuhan, while the government remained tight-lipped about the problem. They even tried to silence the whistleblower doctors, by threatening, arresting them and making them apologise for spreading 'fake news'.

But soon enough, it was to slip from their underbellies. An undisclosed local level outbreak, was about to turn into a widespread global pandemic, hitting 151 countries, forcing them to shut down their entire economies and lose lacs of lives. All thanks, to one aspect of China. One that was highly praised and talked about. Its rapid pace of development. A pathogen originating in the city of Wuhan, once in the middle of nowhere, could now travel across the globe in matters of hours. For now, the city had a world-class international airport (The Wuhan Tianhe International Airport), 14th busiest in the world, catering to 20L passengers in a year. Exactly what the disease required to spread across the world. And so it did.

On the night of 31st December 2019, while the world was celebrating the dawn of a new decade, China reported, that they have a problem. But the countries either failed to acknowledge the gravity of the situation, or adopted a wait and watch policy, to see what the other countries are doing about it. Meanwhile, the situation kept worsening inside China. The Chinese army sprung into action, completely locking down two of the provinces to contain the spread, and released tenders to construct specific type of pressure-regulated hospitals in just 10 day notice. The world meanwhile, kept enjoying the show, as an audience, watching how their eastern counterpart, at the time, 'overreacting' to an invisible pathogen, causing 'just a flu'.

In the coming months, China managed to sail through the storm, reporting as many as 82,000 cases with about 3300 deaths. The worst was over for China. The cities were reopening, malls, schools, public transports, all crawling back to normal. While the storm, had now invaded newer territories, causing a million and half cases, and deaths running in the early hundred thousands. The focus for everyone, the governments, the people, the media today, has entirely shifted towards one thing - The Covid19 Pandemic. But there's one uneasy silence brewing inside China. As the Chinese factories are gearing up, working overtime to complete the orders for beds, testing kits, ventilators or PPEs helping the world demands, there's an utter silence about everything related to Covid19.

Why is China silent?

A country that springs into action to refute any criticism about itself, calling for immediate UN closed door meetings about related or unrelated international issues, has taken to silence. No economic package announcements, no deferment of rents, no postponement of anything. And there is is a big reason around it.

While the cornerstone for democracies has been freedom, the Chinese Communist Party knows, that its cornerstone is 'food'. If you turn the history wheel, the very existence of this pandemic can date back to the 1950's when China was suffering from a famine, which killed nearly 30 million people. The Chinese soil was barren, with no irrigation facilities, no capacities to invest for the people, and the tight communism which restricted private ownership of businesses that was pushing people towards starvation. Just when, a few people in the tribal areas of China resorted to catching, raising and eating wild animals around them, all of it, to feed themselves and their families. The Chinese government saw this as an opportunity and eased out on the licensing part allowing private ownership of farms. While the large private players took to farming crops using their political muscle power and money to buy technology and hire people, the smaller remote farmers took to raising animals. Animals of whichever type, species or size they could find. Whatever was available around them in their immediate flora and fauna. While people around the world were used to seeing such animals in the zoos, these Chinese tribes, took them to their platters for survival.

And soon enough, this industry of wildlife farming, paved a way for an illegal farming of wildlife, its consumption and became a shady, but powerful economy, involving lots of influential people, who were ready to put in their money, and lobby for policies and protection around the high ranking government officials in the Chinese Communist Party. These wildlife animals were now being brought into the cities, being sold as medicines for curing or preventing incurable diseases, boosting strength or offering status to people who could afford and consume it. It was beginning to become a common sight in the wet markets of China, were animals were kept alive, stacked close to each other, for 'quality' inspection, negotiation and buying. But with them, they also brought their diseases, their bacterias, their viruses, which could, at some point, jump from their regular hosts, to a new one - humans. It was a ticking time bomb. Until one day, a disease actually broke out from a similar wet market, when a Coronavirus managed to jump from Bats to humans. It was termed as SARS. Though SARS quickly vanished, after infecting mere 800 people world wide, the lessons were still not learned. And today the Chinese people are paying the very cost of political ignorance.

But for the Chinese government, a new problem has emerged. The once rich and powerful, with flourishing businesses related to wildlife consumption, have suddenly become 'unwanted' for the Communist Party of China. But such an influence cannot be silenced or be pushed away without consequences. Such a sudden declared enmity can result into career turmoils for a lot of Chinese officials. No matter how much I'd like to avoid saying it up front, but Xi's political career too, faces a new kind of challenge. A threat that draws the popular support away from him. Where his support loosens out and his level of authority can now be questioned, surpassed or worse, be doubted inside the party. The political fundings can be diverted to newer faces, which can turn the steering wheel of the entire government.

But apart from this, China is now stuck into huge debt payment cycles. With orders stuck, payments deferred, employees unwilling to come back to work, overloaded supplies, and global demands shutting down, it is struggling hard to find a breathing space. And it has found that breathing space inside its own borders - the domestic consumption. The Chinese government has 1.4 billion people to feed. Many of whom have lost their jobs, or will lose them sooner or later, with huge loans to turn into non performing assets. The other investments that the Chinese had made, including the China-Pakistan economic corridor, and Srilankan port, did not materialise into regular flow of incomes. The problem is huge. The government is now struggling to keep the Chinese economy afloat, without shelling out any cash or commitment to its people. The Chinese government is now making the very mistake that other fallen communist governments round the world made in the past - hitting the stomach of your own population to keep the interests of the government afloat. And such things do not last long.

Freedom is human's basic instinct. Freedom to navigate, freedom to lead a life, freedom to have and raise a family. But all of these freedoms are supported by availability of food and accessibility to work opportunities. And one set, is negotiable for the other. How did the Chinese Communist Party, or the North Korean regime survive with their communism model while all the other countries with such a model failed? The answer is, they ensured their people food, and opportunities to work. With the trade-offs being losing the freedom of speech, freedom to navigate, freedom to have a number of kids, or freedom to opt for a religion. This guarantee of keeping your stomach fed, and your bank accounts with money, has let these modern communist regimes cease the rights of their people to question them, blame them, protest against them and maintain an absolute authority.

But what if, the very guarantees which kept the regimes afloat for decades, suddenly come under threat? With global economies running into recession, with wet markets being banned or regularised with newer rules? It'll spark debates. It'll spark protests. Resistance. Defiance. Not just outside China, but even inside. And no number of police force is enough to silence even 10% of the questioning 1.4 billion people. Such is the threat, the Chinese government wants to sail through silently, until time does its job.

But when the whole world will turn against them, and question the authority and behaviour of theirs, and ask for reparations, or face sanctions, just as Germany was after WW1, will the Chinese authority be able to keep a blind eye over it while whole the world, and their own people unite against them? Only time will tell.

Published: 4th March, 2020

While a lot has been happening around the world lately that might be worthy of hitting your newspaper frontlines including the recent Turkey invasion into Syria, one thing in particular has been kept in sideblocks, both by the Indian media and the world politics - The US-Taliban peace treaty. And it’s quite an interesting one, rarely discussed or reported, mainly due to consequential and controversial reasons. But it is an essential topic to be covered, just because it sets an entirely new precedence, for every war to be fought from now onwards.

I’ll be covering this entire story in two parts, and this, the first chapter shall cover a bit of the Afghanistan story, and a macro viewpoint to the modern day warfare. This is, whole new 'Way To War'. Let's begin..

Afghanistan, today a war-torn country, in absolute ruins, dominated by mass scale poverty and facing a kind of challenge which has grabbed the world’s attention, you guessed it - 'Terrorism'. But going by its history, Afghanistan was never this way, well not until the 1800’s. Unlike a few other modern countries, Afghanistan has one intrinsic aspect to it and its people:

“It isn't just a county, it is a civilisation.”

But what difference does it make? Well, ‘Civilisation’ is basically a bloodline of people, around whom countries come into existence and are broken down. Governments change, borders are drawn, partioned, redrawn, invasions happen, religion makes a complete switch, but the same bloodline continues for thousands of years. And that makes Afghanistan and the Afghan people, special. Few studies have claimed that Afghanistan is as much as 50,000 years old, with a proper civilisation coming into existence at around 3000 BCE. But things have definitely changed since the dawn of 19th Century.

Afganistan is strategically located on the world map. A country, that separates different regions, culture, history and religions. It dissects Middle-East, Russia, and the Indian sub-continent. Back in the 1800s, when the British gained control over India, history took a new turn. As the ever-expanding British forces took control over the state of Punjab, they began to have small skirmishes with the Afghan forces, which later turned into wars, subsequent British invasion into Afghanistan, reaction, recaptures and third party interventions. In-fact, the British and Afghanistan had 3 wars. Amidst all this, the British government signed the Durand line agreement, under a 100-year treaty, which marked the borders between the British India and Afghanistan. Afghanistan acted as a “Buffer Zone” between India and Russia, and was the only way that a Russian invasion could be stopped. Though the Afghan king never accepted this border, the same Durand line later became the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan in 1947. The reason as to why both countries still have border issues and a strained relationship today, so much, that Afganistan was the only country in the world which voted against newly formed Pakistan’s UN membership in 1947.

The British always intervened into Afghan politics. Their intervention even hijacked the government and their policies. And even managed to overthrow the government. This constant intervention to Afghanistan’s autonomy, resulted in an inclination towards the other world power, Russia. But every inclination has its cost and consequence. As the Russian influence grew inside Afghanistan, it gave birth to communism-inclined left parties, which came to power and subsequently were overthrow by rebellions. This brought, the Soviets to invade Afghanistan. To turn the situation around, the British found help in their best ally, and enters, the United States of America. The US, after losing millions of soldiers in constant decade of world wars, did not want to get involved into another long-lasting war, and as a result, they decided to recruit and convince the local rebellion groups and tribal war-lords to join a newly created army and fight for their own freedom. One, which would help them free from the invader - Russia, and help them take back the control of their own land and people. But for US (A foreign party, as foreign as the invading Russia), it was near impossible to create the kind of army, motivated enough to fight and win from a strong enemy like Russia. And to do this job, they needed someone more culturally related to the Afghan people. And enters, the one country, desperately in need of aid, weapon and support of the US in the world politics - Pakistan.

Pakistan ran a successful campaign of recruiting, motivating and training soldiers to fight Russia, with such willpower, that it became a no-sum-game for Russia to hold or keep Afghanistan. And Russia retreated, while the this newly ‘Jihad’ trained army took control of the Afghanistan land and politics. In forms of small, but many local groups, biggest of which subsequently seized power, and became the Afghanistan’s government - Taliban. But the problem? Taliban unleashed a new kind of government. An extremist Islamic one. And their growing power on such a strategical land was to make US a little nervous.
And the US, like the British, started to intervene in the Taliban government, trying to control the warlords, and trying to assert power on oil and finance of the country. And Taliban struck back with an event that shook the entire world and still haunts everyone today - The 9/11. And thus, the US turned against the Taliban, which had sheltered Osama Bin Laden, the mastermind of the attack. The US vowed to invade and overthrow the Taliban government. And they invaded, and also dragged the country which trained these militants and knew them the best - Pakistan. Pakistan was now asked to fight the militants they had themselves trained and created. And the consequence was brutal. Even if Pakistan received a lot of military equipment and aid from the US, including the F-16s, it had to take the wrath of Taliban backed terrorist attacks, including the one on the school children, and bomb blasts, on almost a daily basis. Pakistan lost millions of people in a war, they never expected to fight.

18 years later, Osama Bin Laden is dead, and Afghanistan is divided. On one side, there is a US backed democratic government, established on the lands that US managed to capture and keep during the 18 year long war. While on the other, there is Taliban. Which could not be defeated, no matter how many thousands of soldiers did the US lose. A war this long, had its own ups and downs. While the US managed to swiftly capture most of the lands in Afghanistan when they first invaded, but as things changed, as did the situation in the middle-east, with Iraq and Kuwait, the US forced had to shift their focus and lose a lot of territories in Afghanistan. The Taliban kept growing stronger, until a point, it was a complete stale-mate. The Obama administration tried to bring in more soldiers to ‘Finish off the terrorists’ in the reign of what we call today ‘The Surge’. But more soldiers, meant more casualties, and also more prisoners. All this while, the soldiers who survived this war, desperately waited to get back home. And so did their families, and the people of America. Continuing this war had no purpose, only costs. Not doing so, will guarantee a defeat. Both in the war and the elections. And the latter was more important. And thr Trump administration knew this well.

Fast forward to 2020, the Taliban has bounced back. They’re strong, well financed, have deep dark networks, affiliations to various terror groups including in Syria and Europe. They control a major chunk of Afghanistan’s land area, and have earned a complete support of the local tribes and people there. But most importantly, they have learned the magic word of sustenance - ‘Diplomacy.’ A journey from being oppressed tribals, to picking up arms, form a rebellion, become militias, win against Russia, fight against the US, form a government, terrorise the world, lose a war, learn and gain back, to diplomacy. This marks a complete cycle of something new. A concept which can be replicated elsewhere as well. This peace deal is a complete package, of how to get away with terrorism and everything else. Against the biggest and the only Superpower on the planet.

The Trump and the Taliban administration has now successfully negotiated ‘terms’ and have signed a peace deal. Under this deal, there will be an exchange of prisoners (Both from the US, the Afghanistan Democratic Party and the Talibans). The US will begin extracting its soldiers and shut down their bases in Afghanistan (And completely exit this war). The Taliban will control the part of Afghanistan they currently hold, and so will be the democratic party. But this deal provides no guarantee to anything and only the time will tell, how trustworthy can the Taliban government be. Will they stay put once the US has completely exited? Or will they invade the entire Afghanistan territory and set up the Caliphate they always dreamed about? Will they release all the prisoners or take in more? This peace deal has most of the parts as classified and kept away from public knowledge. Hence, everything is left to the future.

This deal explains one fact though, the desperation of the USA. To exit this mess as soon as they can and take their soldiers back. They can’t seem to take in any more damage, both to lives and the financial cost of war. And in this very desperation, they have signed an agreement with a militant group, one they themselves declared as ‘Global terrorists’ and vowed to run them over. This deal also explains the nature of wars in modern times. Wars which have no end, people keep dying, new lands are won and lost. The idea of wars, where one side completely destroys and finishes off every last piece and soul of the other, today is a myth. Wars from now on, will end up on the negotiating tables. Be it with those who do not negotiate with the terrorists. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, list goes on. Tanks and bullets would be fired only to gain the upper hand in these negotiations. One who has the advantage of guns, gains. And holds the power to ask for benefits. Trade, commerce, amnesty, security, weapons, land, you name it. And that brings us to a very different thought process. Are wars really required? All the wars that India is fighting inside or outside its borders, will they too be ending the same way? Negotiating with the militant groups? Ones whom we call and identify as ‘Dreadful’, ‘Blood thirsty’, ‘Terrorists’? The Naxalites, the LeT, the JeM, the NDF. Will they too be on the negotiating tables someday, when both our government and the groups would realise that their wars are going nowhere?

What would happen when Turkey no longer is in a position to fight with the Syrian rebels? Or NATO, to fight and eliminate the ISIS? A day when they’d have lost so much and there’s nothing left to gain? The answer if you ask me, is yes. They all will be compelled, if not by virtue, to negotiate with the terrorists. But until that time, their government needs the public support to continue sending soldiers, motivating them to fight, create a propaganda through media, and attempt to finish off every last militant/terrorist, if they can, and try to win this war the old traditional way. And if that doesn’t happen, this article would be very much there, to remind you, that there really are no surprises in wars and politics.

15th Feb, 2020

A news is flying high. The world’s current most powerful man is coming to India. Donald John Trump, the 45th President of the United States of America will drop by in Ahmedabad on Feb 24th, alongside the First Lady Melania Trump and warm an event ‘Kem Cho Trump’, a sequel to the recent ‘Howdy Modi’. And this event has a potential to change an entire course of India’s economic history and future. Things are moving fast now. With rumours, statements and analysis of what we might see during this meet. A few leaks, and words are coming out as well. Sometimes on the front liners of your morning newspaper, or else, buried deep inside the official documents pertaining to this meet. And this time, it is all about the timing, as our special guest is heading towards a re-election in December.

This is a very crucial time for both Narendra Modi, and also, Donald Trump. The current situation in India can very well be termed as ‘stressed’. On one side, is the social inequality and then, the recent CAA+NRC debate has taken the country by storm, while on the other end, the economy is strained due to demand containment by the lower end of our population spectrum - the poor. On the other side, economy in US is coming out quite strongly. The numbers have never been better since Obama assumed his office a decade ago. United States is gliding on every economic indicator. Be it the GDP growth rate, the unemployment rate or the per capita levels, all despite its strained trade relations with China, Iran, EU and other parts of the world. But here’s the catch. Economics can neither be explained, nor proven to an average commoner, nor is a sellable tool when it comes to winning elections.

So what is that edge, Trump is looking for? That Narendra Modi, and India can offer? The answer is quite simple, yet very complex. And to understand that, you gotta go a little back in time.

Ever since Trump assumed office, he’s trying to take the American think-tanks to a very different direction. One, where America is just another participant in the world economics and geopolitics, than the great leader. His well known election slogan speaks completely of this thought process - “Make America Great Again”. If you really think about it, wasn’t America great already? Trump made a lot of structural changes to America. From pulling out the Obama healthcare, to pulling out of Paris climate agreement. From threatening to exit NATO, to going all out on war against the Chinese companies and imports. Just as the smaller countries do. His message is clear. Trump wants to change the world’s perception of US, from that of a developed nation, to more of a developing one, where US too, can ask for investments and aid, than mere giving out some as favours. And this has become a major problem for India and Narendra Modi. We’re dealing with an America, that wants our pie, than offering some of its own. And this became even clearer when both of these heads met just a few months ago for the UN general assembly. India had a lot of expectations from Trump in terms of FDIs, but instead, during the ‘Howdy Modi’ event, Trump only spoke about how rich Indian CEOs should consider investing into America. And things only went downhill from here. So what does India have, to counter this?

If you are surfing around the news and social media these days, you must have come across the recent shopping spree India is at, when it comes to defence related purchases. From fancy new submarines, to Rafale jets, to the latest M4 automatic rifles, the Apache helicopters, and even the Globemaster Hercules transporter aircraft. Buying all of these from the world, than building your own has many advantages including saving time, cost, certainty of technical support, and most importantly, buying votes. No, not from our own people, but instead, votes in the UN. Just this week, India declared that it has accumulated a record $473 Billion of foreign reserves. And this raises eyebrows from around the world, especial those selling or manufacturing defence equipments. India is that rich buyer, who everyone wants to sign large contracts with. And US too wants a piece of this pie.

In US, all military manufacturing and sale is strictly controlled by the US government. Who can manufacture what, and sell to whom, every end is intervened by the government. And this is why, the corporate lobby indulging into this business, is really strong. It funds the election campaigns, and even help marketing the candidates to its people and the bureaucracy.
So Trump is coming to sell India, a few defence equipments - namely, the NASAMS II - the anti-missile shield and defence system of USA. And what does India want in return? The solution to its economic and job crisis - FDI.

But here is another problem. Foreign Direct Investment needs an opportunity or a potential space. There needs to be an industry which can be liberalised to accept foreign investors and capital. After automobiles, IT, banks and power, this time, it happens to be, the Indian dairy industry. Since we had the White Revolution in the 1970s, dairy has been walled up quite literally. It is one industry, millions depend on for employment. Especially in poor parts of the country. Amul and Mother Dairy as you know, also contribute to exports. But it has always been kept deprived from external competition. And India, now wishes to offer Trump, the hammer to bring down this wall - by allowing the American dairy imports and investments into India. And this is a serious threat to our premier dairy based corporates. So why does the government want to bring such serious troubles for our companies that has a potential to impact millions of people in such a job-scarce scenario? Who will buy products from Amul when the US companies will fill up our local shelves with their high quality products at a cheaper price?

Here’s another thought to this. Despite dairy being one of the largest contributing industries in India, it is also the most substandard one. One, which affects the quality of life, health and prosperity of every individual. Because this industry was kept away from competition and threat to existence, the quality was never in focus. From substandard adulterated milk, to breeding cattle of lesser productivity as compared to the dairy-rich countries of the world - Australia and NZ. In time, we have reached an extent, where the quality and price of our dairy produces stand nowhere when compared to these dairy rich countries. The Australian cheese, the milk, the butter, the cream, all beat out our Indian produce by miles. And this was the reason, India refused to sign up for the largest trade block agreements in Asia, which would amount to 30% of the world trade - the RCEP. Mainly because we had everything to buy from the world, but literally nothing to sell. And it is perhaps time, to work backwards, see and fix the things that aren’t going right. And think, how can we make at least one of the industry be competitive enough to beat the best of the best. And it’ll need liberalisation. So when the US companies come by, with their shiner produces and prices, our people start to think as well, how can we make our products better? How can we raise our cattle better? How can our packaging and marketing be better? The logistics, the finances, the demand, and to match it, the supply.

Yes, offering this deal to the US, could mean a setback for our dairy farmers in the short term. It might result in protests, and rising unemployment. But living in a walled garden, while the world is burning, thinking that the fire will never reach you, will only make you less prepared. The world’s economic alignment is changing. Competitiveness builds or breaks friendships. And it is time for India to go global, by asking the global leaders to come and change our locals, for the better.

Feb 1st, 2020

“I Support Building Of Statues..”

Yes, you read that right.
But before you get intimidated and provoked by this 'absurd' statement of mine, flex your seat, take a sip of water, a deep breath, relax, and read on. Warning, it'll be a little long one, so please, bear with me.

In the reign of Bhartiya Janta Party, its uncompromisingly right winged manifesto, an infinite wave of propagandas, the failing yet not-so-reactive opposition, and amid all this, the illogical media debates, selectively framed narratives and instigating remarks by leaders, overshadow a lot of things.

So why, a country so poor, so financially in deficit, ranking rock bottom for most of the economic indicators, despite surviving 7 bright decades of maturing democracy, is prioritising building statues, and spending a handful of crores from its precious budget? That too, over the needs of education, or healthcare, for building a 182m tall statue, of unity (which ironically, our political parties have never experienced), and to top it all, why am I supporting this idea?

Before we resort to name calling and side-tagging, hell no, I'm not a right or left bent supporter, nor am I emotionally connected to India's history. So, what gets me to support this idea really? Short answer, economics, and geopolitics. But then again, for those who find it tougher than kitchen science, I'll keep it really simple to understand, so you too can proudly call this, economics-for-dummies. After all, we shouldn't get into maths, since Einstein discovered gravity without it (Cough). I'll keep this lengthy article, divided into two aspects.

Part 1: Economics

We choose governments so they control economics, and run our economy (So we don't have to and can happily tag each other on memes all day). There are two very different ends to controlling these strings. Microeconomics - Which influences your own personal decision to buy, hold, delay, sell, or shift something. And macroeconomics, which influences the country's decision as a whole.

Spending on the education or healthcare budget is a macroeconomic decision, but opting for a particular degree course, or buying an insurance policy is a microeconomic one. And of course, one would create an environment, the other will just be a reaction to that environmental change. Bad teaching quality in schools, would make you opt for extra tuitions (This option is still unavailable for Arts students), similarly, a great healthcare would make you spend less on buying insurance policies (But you'll still receive more of those annoying spam calls).

But here's the hard fact behind all of it. Healthcare and Education are an investment for any country. And they are a pretty long term one. It takes generation full of sizable chunk of budgets, to be invested, each year, with little or no visible results even after decades. For example, the US, with an almost 250 year old unchallenged democracy, still hasn't achieved 100% education rate when it comes to attaining minimum one bachelor's deploma in any field. The reason? Dependency on the government. While governments are large, rich and powerful, when it comes to countries with very large amount of population, there isn't enough to arrange sponsorship for each and every individual. And the burden of this expenditure then, needs to be shifted on-to the people by offering them opportunities to earn and fund their own healthcare or education.

So, we need the 'boosters'.

The statue, that the government has built in the middle of nowhere, will soon be bustling with a wave of cabs, busses, cafés, hotels, adventure sports, new tourist spots, banks, ATMs, shops and soon enough people would want to invest into buying homes and offices near that spot, loving the splendid view from the balconies of their nests. These people would then demand for schools, colleges, hospitals, a postal address, networks, and online services. The once, in the middle of nowhere statue, will be right in the middle of a new bustling city housing millions of people for centuries, and would be just another landmark for sending your loved one a christmas postcard. And yet, each of these new developments, will not only employ people and their upcoming offsprings (for generations), but will also not be fully government funded. Each private business would be invested by an individual like you and me, will pay tax, make money and fund their child's education.

The government has built the statue, and the people will build an entire city around it.

Spending Rs. 3000 Crore today will enable people to earn and spend a thousand time more on their own education (including tax) and shift the burden from the government's budget for centuries to come.

Part 2: Geopolitics

The days of establishing friendly relationships for mutual cooperation between countries, are over. In 2020, countries are very much connected through a network of embassies and mutually-signed agreements.

We're now moving towards an age of 'Competing' relationships from an existing 'Cooperative' one. Each country today, wants to have the biggest pie of every fresh social, economic or technological outcomes. Every country wants the global investors to choose them as their preferred destination for parking their freshly saved green dollars. And to do this, the means are getting scarce.

There was a time when being an 'emerging' economy was the X-factor. But today, almost all economies, big or small, Asian or African are 'Emerging Economies'. In such a scenario, one way out to create that differentiation is to 'Make Headlines'.

Any publicity is good publicity. It isn't what the global media houses are talking about you, but rather if you're able to flash on their front pages. That's the first step, once you've appeared in the minds of people, you can slowly work to get into their good books, and steal all the probabilities for somebody else to deserve that pie. And trust me, building 'The World's Largest Statue' sells. It sells like hot cakes. Like the eyes widening news. That might provoke some, excite some, make someone proud, or be disappointed, even jealous or make them criticise you, but it can't make them ignore your presence.

And new countries are mostly tagged with a common negative term - Unstable. India tried to distance itself from such a tag by projecting Gandhi's ideologies and principles. But then again, its actions, be it communal violence, riots, the five fought wars, terrorism, and secretly acquiring nuclear weapons, has always gotten the investors to avoid India to keep their money safely parked. Moreover India has been economically unstable as well. In honest lines, investors are not at all confident about the taxation rules or the currency stability. And then, the deepening of gap between the rich and the poor, kill every aspiration left.

In such a scenario, building a wasteful statue, sends a message across the globe, that investments in India are safe. Even in the middle of nowhere. The days of instability are over. We can now build infrastructure projects worth billions, in the middle of nowhere, with no threat of wars, terrorism, or strong dissent. This works when the realisation strikes, that while India's neighbours struggle to build simple damns due to terrorism and violence, India peacefully builds an absurd, 3,000 Cr. for a statue. A stupid idea at first. But a really thoughtful one.

You'd say, we could have built a university or hospital for that cost, but such projects are built by every country, every year, and will continue to be built, year after year, and will still make no long-lasting headlines. Because they aren't absurdly weird or wasteful.

There are, and will be many other aspects to this statue, which would widely fit the reason, let alone the 100 Cr. per year income generated through the sale of tickets alone in 2019. But then again, I believe they still aren't the complete picture. No matter what the government says, and how they twist and compare their narratives to saving the history or culture by making people remember Sardar Patel, who leveraged his personality, to integrate India, these narratives have been sold to BJP's voter base with ease. But the real narrative could neither be explained to the common people, nor can be calculated by mathematicians/economists/professionals to estimate the economic or reputational benefits (because you know, in the great words and kind wisdom of Piyush Goyal, math didn't help "who", discover gravity :))

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